Insights · Egypt

The last economic engine

Export and import activity have both declined, foreign income has declined, and industrial production has declined because of the rising cost of raw materials or of operations in general.

Ayman AbouhendChief Investment Officer · 19 December 2016 · 1 min read

Export and import activity have both declined, foreign income has declined, and industrial production has declined because of the rising cost of raw materials or of operations in general.

So if we ask how the country's economy is running now, we will find that Egypt's economy now depends entirely, through and through, on domestic consumption!

This consumption has become the last engine that ensures the continued movement of the commercial and investment market in the coming period, and China relied on this tool (domestic consumption) when the world announced the slowdown of the global economy at the start of 2016 and, consequently, the slowdown of China's exports!

I was one of the first people calling for floating the currency (with good monetary cover) and for encouraging and developing industry and local products, but what I see now is a slowdown in getting factories running and a hysterical rise in prices, which has led to lower local production and to traders exploiting the initiative to encourage local products by tripling prices!

And the government stands with its hands tied, at a loss, while official inflation has reached 20% and unofficial inflation has exceeded 35%!

If things continue this way, people's spending will fall, buying and selling will decline, and the last engine or fuel the local economy uses to keep going will stop. Then the government will truly learn the meaning of the principle of "operational bankruptcy", and then I hope to hear from government officials, and even the presidency, something other than

"Never mind, let's bear with it a little"!

Thank you

Published in

Ayman Abouhend
Ayman Abouhend

Eighteen years in investment management, M&A and financial technology. A CFA Charterholder, he leads investment analysis, valuation and fund structuring across Significa's advisory and investment practices, and teaches valuation and fund structures in the CVC Builder curriculum. Concurrently Chief M&A and Growth Officer at AlternativeSoft in London; co-founder of MarkeScope, which developed the first stock-screening solution to incorporate risk measures. Treasurer of CFA Society Egypt; BSc Electrical, Electronics and Communications Engineering, Cairo University.

More from Significa